Heavy Snow in the Great Lakes and Northeast

A winter storm system will push through the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. today and tomorrow bringing with it significant snowfall amounts and gusty winds. Accumulating snow is likely from central Nebraska through Maine. Freezing rain could mix in with light snow on the southern edge of the precipitation. Areas in the Winter Storm Warning will see between 8-16″ of fresh snow by Monday afternoon while those in the Winter Weather Advisory can expect up to half a foot. Travel will be severely impacted through the Great Lakes, northern Ohio Valley, and New England both today and early tomorrow. Airport delays are likely.

Winter Weather

A Blizzard Warning is also in effect for portions of northeastern Illinois, extreme southeastern Wisconsin, and extreme northwestern Indiana. Visibility will become limited as winds pick up this afternoon. Gusts could be as high as 40 mph. The Chicago metro area is expected to see 10-15″ of snow. O’Hare is already reporting numerous flight delays due to the snow and wind. Check flight delays from across the country here.

Great Lakes Snow Totals

Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic, including the NYC metro, could see up to a quarter inch of ice accumulation by tomorrow afternoon. 6-12″ of snow is likely to mix with freezing rain making travel treacherous. Snowfall rates could occasionally hit 1-2″ per hour through tomorrow afternoon. Highest snow totals will be through central New York state.

North East Snow Totals

Elsewhere across the country, the weather will stay fairly quiet to end the weekend. Snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Rockies today. Seattle and other lower elevation cities will see light rain. Cold air invades the eastern U.S. tomorrow. Minnesota and the Dakotas will see bitter wind chills on Monday morning. Kickoff for Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, AZ is set for 5:30 CT this evening and the weather couldn’t be better! Temperatures will be in the mid 60s with clear skies.

- Meteorologist Ashley O’Connor
Find me on Twitter @AshleyOConnorWX

Climatology For The Super Bowl – Will It Rain Sunday In Glendale?

Super Bowl XLIX is being held in Glendale, Arizona, this upcoming Sunday (February 1st). This will be the second time that the University of Phoenix Stadium has hosted a Super Bowl, the previous being in 2008. If we include the whole Phoenix area, this would be the third time (1996 in Tempe, AZ).

While rain is in the forecast for festivities both Friday and Saturday, will it clear out in time for the game on Sunday – even though it’s being held in a retractable roof stadium? We’ll get to that in a moment, but first lets check out some weather stats from the previous 48 Super Bowls. All information for climatology in this post came from research by William Schmitz of the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

[Interactive Radar]

SB_Temps

Let’s start out with temperature extremes. First, the warmest high temperature on the day of the Super Bowl was 82 degrees in 1973 (when the game was held on January 14 in Los Angeles, CA) and in 2003 (when the game was held on January 26 in San Diego, CA). Both of those stadiums were outside stadiums.

We can split the coldest high temperatures into two categories – Dome and Outside. For games held indoors (dome or retractable roof), the coldest high was 16 in 1982 (when the game was held January 24 in Pontiac, MI). For games that were held outdoors, the coldest high was 43 in 1972 (when the game was held January 16 in New Orleans, LA at Tulane Stadium).

SB_Precip

Next, we’ll take a look at the precipitation. Out of the 48 Super Bowl games held – both indoors and outdoors – 18 of those game locations (about 38%) had a trace or more of precipitation at any time during the day of the game. The wettest Super Bowl day was when 0.92″ fell back in 2007 (when the game was held February 4 in Miami, FL). Meanwhile, two game days have had snow fall where the game was held, and one of the 48 games saw an ice storm. The good news with those games? They were all held inside (Snow: Pontiac and Detroit, MI; Ice Storm: Atlanta, GA).

SB_Glendale_Averages

Now since we took a look at all the previous games, lets focus in on the climatology for Glendale, AZ, on February 1st – the day the game will be held this year. The average high in Glendale is 67 with an average low of 48. They have been as warm as 83 back in 2003 on February 1. The wettest February 1st was back in 1938 when 1.13″ fell during the day.

As mentioned above, Glendale, AZ, last held the Super Bowl back in 2008 on February 3rd. That day saw a high of 63, low of 45, and a trace of precipitation.

SB_Glendale_Forecast

The good news is that the system that is bringing rain to the area Friday and Saturday should clear out of the area by Sunday, leading to good tailgating conditions and good conditions for the game as well if they had the roof open. A temperature of 65 at kickoff isn’t bad at all, and near the average high for the day.

[Forecast: GlendalePhoenix]

us_wx_msg5_i12

Taking a look across the nation Sunday if you heading out for any Super Bowl parties, you may encounter some snow from the Central Plains into southern New England, including St. Louis and New York City. On the southern side of that system, rain will be likely for areas from Texas to the Carolina coast, including Dallas and Atlanta. Snow will also be possible in the higher elevations of Idaho, Montana and Washington, while lower elevation areas like Seattle will receive rain.

How are you preparing for the Super Bowl?

DJ Kayser web2

Meteorologist D.J. Kayser

Find me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)

Wireless Emergency Alerts. Love them? Hate Them?

Weather Emergency Alerts…you either love ‘em or hate ‘em. Either way these smartphone alerts are timely and efficient ways of getting important information to the general public.

iphone alerts

With the latest blizzard that struck NYC, millions of people received a message on their smartphones warning of the imminent road closures. Federal agencies (like the National Weather Service) and local governments are the only ones that can issue such alerts. They are sent through all major carriers at no cost to you.

There are strict guidelines, however, when government agencies can utilize this communication tool. They include:

  • Flash Flooding
  • Tornado
  • Tsunami
  • Hurricane
  • Extreme Wind
  • Dust Storm

Can you turn off these automatic alerts? Yes. But the potential benefits of the WEA’s could be life-saving.

Have you ever received a Wireless Emergency Alert? If so, did you find it helpful?

-Meteorologist Kristin Clark

Say It Ain’t Snow! More Snow Coming for the Northeast

While parts of New England are still digging out from the one to three feet of snow they saw earlier this week, another storm system is on its way to potentially add to the misery.

Radar
Radar as of 2:15 PM ET January 29, 2015.

An Alberta Clipper has been moving in the Northeast throughout the day today, spreading snow east with it. [Interactive Radar]

9PMThurs
NAM model precipitation and pressure for 9 PM tonight (January 29, 2015)

We expect the storm system to continue to spread snow eastward throughout the afternoon and evening hours today, bringing with it enough to probably have to shovel your sidewalk and driveway tonight or Friday morning.

6PMFri
NAM model precipitation and pressure for 6 PM Friday (January 30, 2015)

However, as the low pressure system slowly moves offshore throughout the day Friday and into Friday Night, we’ll see an intensification in the snow over parts of northern New England. Due to this, over the next couple days, parts of Maine could end up with another foot of snow!

Advisories
Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) as of 2:30 PM ET January 29, 2015.

Winter Storm Warnings are already in effect for the entire state of Maine for Friday into early Saturday due to the incoming snow. Local Weather Service offices are not only warning of the snow, but of some gusty winds as well – up to 30 mph at times – that will help to reduce visibility as the snow is falling.

WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_60HR
Snowfall forecast off the GFS model through Saturday evening. Image: WeatherCaster

Some areas of Maine could easily pick up 6-12″ of snow, and possibly more, as we head through Saturday evening. Amounts will taper off quickly as you head southwest, however, with 3-7″ possible in parts of New Hampshire. We’ll have to watch the gradient closely in the Boston area depending on how the snow sets up, but some of the suburbs could see 3-6″ into Saturday. Even further south than that, New York City and parts of southern New England will likely only pick up between 1-3″ from the system.

[Forecasts: New York CityBostonPortland]

NoonFri
NAM model precipitation and pressure for Noon Friday (January 30, 2015)

After that, all eyes will turn to a system in the Southwest that could bring a foot or more of snow to the mountains of New Mexico. This system will move across the country this weekend, bringing rain and snow to parts of the Central and Southern Plains, as well as the Ohio Valley, Saturday and Sunday. After that, we’ll have to see what direction the storm takes, as the potential exists that it could bring even more snow for parts of the Northeast heading into early next week.

[Forecasts: AlbuquerqueSt. LouisLouisville]

PGAForecast

Unfortunately, the Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA Golf) is going on this weekend in Scottsdale, AZ, so the last thing they want to see is rain! They will likely have to dodge a few raindrops throughout the day Friday and into Saturday as Tiger Woods makes his return to the course for the first time in 14 years. Sunday looks to be the bright spot of the weekend!

We’ll keep an eye on the snow chances for the Northeast over the next few days!

DJ Kayser web2

Meteorologist D.J. Kayser

Find me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)

Was Northeast Blizzard Forecast a Bust?

most accurate

The Grand Illusion

With apologies to the rock band Styx – I’m talking about a different illusion here. Recent years have brought a meteorological arms race: new weather models, higher resolution, more petaflops! Here is what I hear all the time:

“Paul, you blinking meathead, you have access to supercomputer and Doppler radar. You SHOULD be able to tell me exactly how many inches of snow will fall in my yard!”

In theory, yes. In reality, not even close.

Private and government (NOAA) forecasters in New York and Boston are under siege for overestimating Monday night’s snowfall amounts. In their defense even the ECMWF (European) model busted. Total amounts ranged from 8 inches at Central Park to 21 at Sayville, Long Island, only 50 miles due east. I’m not sure weather models will ever able to effectively pinpoint such extremes over such a small geographical area.

Weather isn’t an exact science, like economics or foreign policy.

car snow

20-30″ snow for metro Boston. The forecast verified for Bean Town; details from CBS Boston. Photo credit: “Cars are buried by drifted snow along Marlborough Street, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2015, in Boston. A howling blizzard with wind gusts over 70 mph heaped snow on Boston along with other stretches of lower New England.” (AP Photo/Dwayne Desaulniers).

snow blower

Snowstorm’s Forecast Was Mostly Right, Even If It Felt Wrong In New York. Manhattan was on the western edge of the heaviest snow bands; 40 miles made the difference between 8″ and 21″. Here’s an excerpt from The New York Times: “…One of the difficulties with forecasting major storms, Dr. Sobel said, is that a small error in predicting the path of the storm can cause a much larger error in impact. “The bigger the event, the bigger the bust potential,” he said. In this storm, the predicted snowfall gradients — charts showing how much would accumulate where — were very steep. “So a little bit of track error means a big snowfall error,” he said...”

Photo credit above: “Snow swirls into the air as Ted Diamond operates a snow blower to clear out his driveway on Greenvale Drive in East Northport on Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2015, in New York. Long Island was one of several areas throughout the state to be hit by a blizzard overnight into this morning.” (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek).

Partly Wrong With A Chance of Being Right: Weather Forecast. Why do weather models fail? In light of the Big Bust out east I wanted to include a link to a storyy at ScienceDaily; here’s an excerpt: “…For example, they found that in the eastern Mediterranean, particles in the atmosphere were the most important cause of forecast fallacies, followed by land cover change. They also found topography to be the most influential factor affecting weather around the world. “The only tool the weather forecaster has is his model, and the only choice he or she has is to look at different models, each of which has strengths and weaknesses,” said Prof. Alpert…”

What Exactly Is A Nor’easter? Newsweek has a good description; here’s an excerpt: “…A classic nor’easter results when an existing low-pressure system moves across the country from west to east and then spawns a new storm off the East Coast, usually between the Carolinas and New Jersey, explains Keith Seitter, executive director of the American Meteorological Society. The initial storm may not have produced a huge amount of precipitation as it moved over land, but the new storm goes through an “explosive development,” says Seitter, and becomes a “monster storm” that absorbs the original one…”

Image credit above: “A winter storm approaches the eastern United States in a satellite image released January 26, 2015. The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning for New York City and surrounding areas between coastal New Jersey and Connecticut, beginning 1 p.m. EST on Monday. The storm will worsen overnight into Tuesday morning.” NOAA/Reuters.

Snow Scary. The New Yorker has a terrific article that helps to explain why the USA is a nation of extreme-weather junkies; here’s a clip: “…Edgework” is precisely what extreme weather is. A winter storm—or any storm, really—approximates this thrill. It’s powerful, and even dangerous. But safely ensconced inside, and in front of our computer screens, we don’t think that it will really hurt us. The power might go out, but then we would be able to share a picture of a car buried in a snowdrift. And then, soon, it will be over. You will have had the thrill, and you might have gained control over it by capturing a moment of “danger,” but, in all, it seems a relatively minor risk. We satisfy our inner risk-seeker without going into dangerous territory…”


7 Chilling Stories Of Snow Storms Throughout American History. TIME Magazine takes a numbing walk down memory lane; here’s a clip: “…It was Jan. 31, 1977, when this poor freezing man appeared on the cover of TIME. The story inside, which detailed the effects on the United States of what the publisher’s letter called “the bitterest cold spell in memory.” The first-ever reported snow fall in West Palm Beat, Fla., had shocked residents. Buffalo had been buried under more than 120 in. of the white stuff that season. And, ironically, areas that needed snow — the ski resorts of Idaho, for example — had to rely on snow-making machines despite the cold temperatures

Photo credit: Bill Koch, North Dakota State Highway Department. Credit: Collection of Fr. Herbert Kroehl, NGDC.

Snowstorms Then And Now“. McSweeney’s Internet Tendency has a look at how adults have ruined snowstorms. It’s a worthy (and funny) read.

-Meteorologist Paul Douglas

 

Aeris Weather iOS SDK 2.0 Now Available

We’re excited to finally be releasing our new, completely rewritten Aeris Weather iOS SDK officially to the public! We highlighted some of the exciting changes in part 1 and part 2 of our preview blog posts last summer, but there are also many more additions and improvements with the next major release.

screenshots

To get started with 2.0, just review our usage documentation and download the example project that shows off many of the new features and changes in the SDK. This download also contains the core SDK files you will need to use within your own applications.

If you are migrating from our previous 1.0 version of the SDK, make sure to review our migration guide to make your upgrade process a little smoother.

If you have any issues or feature suggestions with 2.0 of our SDK, feel free to contact us with them either through support or our Twitter account @AerisDeveloper.

Aeris Pulse
Introducing Aeris Pulse: An Interactive & Customizable Weather App

“Be prepared for ever-changing weather with Aeris Pulse.”

Announcing Aeris Weather’s newest mobile weather app: Aeris Pulse! Aeris Pulse gives you weather, in color. From sky conditions to temperatures to time of day, the colors in the app match the current weather.  Aeris Pulse is always fresh and exciting because its aesthetics change just as frequently as the weather.

Aeris Pulse is powered by the Aeris Weather API, so you have constant access to the most reliable weather data. Instantly check current conditions to determine whether you will need sunglasses or an umbrella. View future radar to see if the snow will hold off until after the morning commute. Aeris Pulse uses your GPS location, so current conditions and forecast data automatically update whether you have traveled 10 minutes or 10 miles from your starting point. Enjoying a weekend at the lake or an afternoon at the ballpark? Aeris Pulse will alert you if severe weather threatens to interrupt your day.

Upgrade to Aeris Pro within Aeris Pulse for $11.99.  This one year subscription gives you access to the complete set of advanced weather map layers, multiple forecast models, and an expanded timeline.

Find Aeris Pulse in the iTunes App Store!

Download here!

Find Aeris Pulse in the Google Play Store!

Download here!

Features:

  • Alerts to Approaching Weather Threats Specific to the User’s Location
  • Current Conditions, Hourly Outlook, 7 Day Forecast
  • Interactive Weather Map
  • Multiple Data Layers, including Radar, Storm Cells, Future Precipitation, Advisories and many more
  • Ability to Save Favorite Locations
  • Notification Center Widgets for Local Conditions, Approaching Weather Threats, and Radar
  • Fully Powered by Aeris Weather API

Aeris Pulse Layers

aeris wear
Aeris Wear Update 1.0.6

After reviewing user feedback and requests, we’ve worked hard to update our latest app, Aeris Wear, by adding new features and increasing user ease and convenience.  Here’s what’s new and updated in Aeris Wear 1.0.6:

We’ve added more data sync interval options to help optimize your device’s battery life.  Choose how often you want Aeris Wear to update, from every 15 minutes to only 4 times a day.

You may now choose to turn notifications off.  Aeris Wear will still update, but your device will not alert you when it does so.

Current and forecast weather are now more precise with the addition of numerous weather observation sites. Aeris Wear gives you the ability to choose between only official data or multiple other data sources so you can get the most accurate weather.

Pick which location you’d like to receive data for by either using your device’s GPS location or manually setting a desired location.  Check out the weather at your vacation resort before you hop on the plane!

Data now automatically updates when Aeris Wear is launched from your Wear device.

 

Visit the Google Play store to download Aeris Wear today!  Once you’ve experienced the convenience of having your weather just a glimpse away, upgrade to Pro for $0.99 to enjoy all 9 available cards, including satellite and advisories.

Discover more about Aeris Wear Weather, including a list of compatible devices, by visiting http://www.hamweather.com/apps/aeris-wear/.

Find Aeris Wear on Google Play.

Free Download
aeris wear
Introducing Aeris Wear: Weather & Radar for Android Wear

“With Aeris Wear, your weather is just a glimpse away.”

We’re very excited to announce our first app: Aeris Wear! This app gives users simple, clean weather information and is also optimized for Android Wear devices. We’re also proud to feature regional and local radar imagery for both mobile and wearable devices.

Aeris Wear is driven by our powerful Aeris Weather API, putting the best possible weather data directly in your hands. Users can quickly access their current weather conditions, as well as short-term and extended forecasts. Do you need a jacket on your way out the door? Will the weather slow down your evening commute? How long until that thunderstorm arrives? Aeris Wear provides straight-forward answers in a clean, simple app.

Move seamlessly between your wearable device and your mobile phone with Aeris Wear’s customizable cards. Pro users (Aeris Wear Pro: $0.99) have the option to add additional cards with a variety of map views and data sets, plus re-arrange the order of their cards on their wearable device.

Try us out! Free download from Google Play here:

Find us on Google Play

Features

On your mobile device:

-Current conditions for your GPS location

-Detailed short-term forecast information

-Extended outlook

-Interactive radar map (includes animated satellite, radar, advisories, and storm-cell tracking)

-Instant severe weather alerts

On your wearable device:

-Current conditions for your GPS location

-Instant weather warnings/advisories alerts

-Detailed short-term forecast information

-Extended outlook

-Local/regional radar images

-Local/regional satellite images

-Local/regional advisory maps

Aeris iOS Weather SDK 2.0 Beta 1 Released

We have officially released the first public beta of the next major release of our Aeris iOS Weather SDK. As we’ve previously reviewed in part 1 and part 2 of our preview blog posts, there are many new features and considerable improvements to not only performance but also working with the SDK.

 Aeris iOS Weather SDK 2.0

Read more… »